The summer months historically present a buying opportunity in precious metals as illustrated in the charts shown below. In the past, there has been a clear change of direction in sentiment annually from the 185-195 day mark – midway in the year. So far this summer, though, gold has broken with tradition by turning in a strong June, as shown in the third chart

After breaking out of a five-year trading range this week, the price of gold surged above $1,400 an ounce for the first time since 2013 on expectations of a U.S. rate cut. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 2 percent, its lowest level since November 2016. Meanwhile, the pool of negative-yielding government bonds around the world hit a fresh record high of $13 trillion.

Gold in that situation is going to scream. It will be the antidote for people with equity portfolios.

Electrum Group’s Thomas Kaplan is another billionaire who subscribes to gold ownership for longer-term fundamental (supply and demand) and economic reasons. “I like those things where the scarcity is assured,” he told Bloomberg in a Peer-to-Peer interview recently. He also said that the yellow metal was on the cusp of a new decade long bull market capable of lifting it ultimately to between $3000 and $5000 per ounce.

During the course of the past few weeks, we have heard much about the inverted yield curve in three-month and ten-year Treasuries as a harbinger of recessions. Missed in the press reports is the fact that it has also been a harbinger of higher gold prices.

Most gold bull runs typically start slowly as it faces the headwinds from good selling by frustrated longs who see price strength as an opportunity to exit … once we are through that gold is unfettered for a faster move higher as prices go inelastic. We seem to be in that phase now.

The high RSI suggests that gold is due a temporary pause - but it also suggests to us that it is brewing for the mother of all moves higher. We just need to breach the $1360 level and we are off to the races.

In their latest gold-price forecast report, the US investment banking giant Goldman Sachs made upward revisions to their 12-month price outlook.

Key Highlights:
3 months at 1,325 / oz (prior forecast was 1250)
6 months at 1,375 (1300)
12 months forecast to 1,425 (1350)

Gold to derive support from:
Defensive positioning (investors with a fear of a recession).
Central banks to buy.

Potential for growth and heightened risk in 2019

I would also recommend gold and gold stocks. The yellow metal, as expected, is performing well at the moment, and commodity traders have taken a net bullish position for the first time since July. So far this quarter, gold has crushed the market, returning around 6 percent as of December 21, compared to negative 15 percent for the S&P 500 Index. Gold miners, though, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, have been the top performer, climbing a phenomenal 12.3 percent.